According to Adam Back, a model by Daniele argues the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is different this time, with a flat bubble detection metric and a thesis that BTC grinds higher without a bear market and with smaller pullbacks than prior cycles. Source: Adam Back on X, Nov 16, 2025. For trading, this thesis favors a trend-following bias and buying shallow dips in BTC while monitoring the bubble metric for any spike that could signal a regime change. Source: Adam Back on X, Nov 16, 2025.

According to the source, over the past three months every BTC pullback has been rapidly bid up, with price back above 112,000 dollars and multi-thousand-dollar swings occurring within days; source: ProCap BTC partner interview. The interview asserts the Bitcoin bull market is not over and that upcoming retracements should be milder than prior cycles as both institutional and retail inflows increase; source: ProCap BTC partner interview. For traders, this implies momentum-supported, shallow-dip conditions where buy-the-dip activity dominates, while short-term volatility remains elevated and requires tight risk controls; source: ProCap BTC partner interview.